March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank raised its
benchmark interest rate for the second time in three months and
indicated that more increases are possible as economic growth
and inflation accelerate. Stocks and bonds fell and the euro
rose.
``We stand ready to do whatever is necessary and
appropriate to ensure price stability,'' ECB President Jean-
Claude Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the
ECB lifted the refinancing rate to 2.5 percent from 2.25
percent. The ECB has ```a stimulative monetary policy. There is
no doubt in my mind.''
The bank said the economy of the dozen nations sharing the
euro will expand about 2.1 percent this year, up from a December
forecast of 1.9 percent. Export earnings are fueling domestic
spending by companies such as LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton
SA, which today said second-half profit rose 22 percent.
Trichet's comments ``imply that the ECB is thinking of
further monetary tightening during the course of the year,''
said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital
in London. ``I would look for that to happen on June 8.''
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.8 percent to 328.05 at
4:35 p.m. in London. The decline in bonds sent the yield on
German two-year notes, among the most sensitive to changes in
rate expectations, up 0.06 percentage point to 3.06 percent, the
highest since Dec. 6, 2002. The euro climbed as high as $1.2016
from $1.1924 yesterday.
Faster Inflation
Confidence among European executives and consumers rose to
the highest in five years in February. Inflation may average 2.2
percent this year and next, up from a previous estimate of about
2.1 percent, and 2 percent in 2007, Trichet said today.
Investors increased bets the ECB will raise the benchmark
refinancing rate to 3 percent by the end of 2006, futures
trading suggests. The yield on the three-month contract for
December settlement was 3.27 percent, compared with 3.22 percent
yesterday.
The contracts settle to the three-month euro area inter-
bank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 15 basis
points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's
launch in 1999.
``Interest rates across the maturity spectrum remain at
very low levels in both nominal and real terms, and our monetary
policy remains accommodative,'' Trichet said. ``We will continue
to monitor closely all developments with respect to risk to
price stability.''
Wage Demands
In the past month, ECB council members Trichet, Yves
Mersch, Nicholas Garganas and Axel Weber expressed concern about
so-called second-round effects, as higher oil prices fan demands
for higher pay, creating an inflationary spiral. IG Metall, the
German engineering and metalworkers' union that traditionally
sets the benchmark for other industries, demanded a 5 percent
pay increase, more than twice the inflation rate.
Politicians and some economists see a risk that higher ECB
rates will choke growth. Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro
Holding NV in London, said Feb. 24 that the ECB has irrational
fears of an ``inflation monster'' and that the bank is being
``too aggressive.''
Pervenche Beres, chairwoman of the European Parliament's
economic and monetary committee, today asked: ``Mr. Trichet, by
raising interest rates today, doesn't the ECB risk halting the
fragile upturn in growth?''
Global Rates
Manufacturing expansion accelerated to the fastest pace in
19 months in February, according to an index compiled by NTC
Research Ltd. The euro-region unemployment rate declined to 8.3
percent, from 8.9 percent in September 2004.
With the exception of the U.K., where policy makers pared
their benchmark lending rate in August to 4.5 percent and have
left it unchanged since, central bankers worldwide are in the
process of lifting borrowing costs.
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui has embarked on a
campaign to prepare markets for higher rates as the world's
second-largest economy emerges from seven years of deflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates 14 consecutive
times since June 2004 to a four-year high of 4.5 percent.
The Fed will increase borrowing costs by at least as much
as the ECB in 2006, according to a Royal Bank of Scotland Group
Plc survey published yesterday in London.
The euro area will trail the U.S. in economic growth for a
sixth year in 2007, according to Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development projections published Nov. 29. The
U.S. unemployment rate is almost half that of Europe, and
concern about job losses has made Europeans reluctant to
increase spending. Retail sales in the region fell in January,
the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed Feb. 6.
Inflation Concerns
Higher energy costs are also forcing consumers to spend
more on fuel. Crude oil prices have risen 84 percent in the past
two years, climbing as high as $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30. A
barrel of crude cost $62.55 in New York trading today.
``As regards the future, we will decide to move on the
basis of facts, figures, data, on our future assessment of the
risks to price stability and their own evolution,'' Trichet said
today. European consumers ``are not fully satisfied with the
current level of inflation and they are calling to us to be up
to our responsibility.''
Growth in M3, a measure of money supply the ECB uses as a
barometer of future inflation, accelerated to 7.6 percent in
January from a year earlier, up from a 7.3 percent gain in
December, the bank said this week.
The ECB has estimated euro-region home values exceed the
historical average by as much as 25 percent. The expansion in M3
has topped 4.5 percent, the level the ECB says is non-
inflationary, every month since May 2001.